It is quite possible that, 3,330 miles away from Stamford Bridge, events in Malabo may have impacted the destination of the Premier League title. Even if the Ivory Coast had not progressed to the quarter-finals of the Africa Cup of Nations, injury to Yaya Toure means Manchester City will be unable to call upon the iron-lunged midfielder for Saturday's visit to Stamford Bridge.
Not so long ago, his importance to the reigning champions was being questioned and dissected. Not anymore.
What has become abundantly clear in the Ivorian skipper's continuing absence, quite apart from his goal threat and playmaking abilities, is how much of an irreplaceable adhesive he has become, grappling and pulling a disjointed side together, a conduit between an increasingly heedless defence and an attack that has yet to click as a collective and leans on the devastating firepower of Sergio Aguero.
Even with Toure, City have struggled to hit the heights they soared to last season – they have averaged just 2.04 goals per league game this season, down from 2.68 last term, while they have already dropped twice as many points at home as they did in the entirety of the previous campaign – but without the 31-year-old around to perform his delicate balancing act they have stumbled even further.
The champions have always felt Toure's absence – they win less regularly, score less often and concede more goals – but the situation has exacerbated this season, perhaps because, post birthday cake-gate, the lack of such an easy scapegoat has turned the spotlight on the plight of others, not least lumbering captain Vincent Kompany.
City have not won any of the four league games the Ivorian has missed this season, while in the FA Cup, a tournament Toure has etched his name upon, they were eliminated by Middlesbrough.
CITY SLIPPERS | The champions have largely been worse off without Toure since he joined the club in 2010 *statistics provided by Opta
The nadir of City's Toure-less nightmares, though, came against Arsenal at the Etihad Stadium. Exiting the cup at the hands of a Championship side was humbling, but losing to the Gunners hinted at a worrying sea change in their dominance over the division's usual title race also-rans.
Admittedly, Arsene Wenger sprung a tactical surprise – though the Frenchman insists his defensive manoeuvrings were nothing new – but City were flat and lifeless against a side they had romped past previously.
Prior to their most recent meeting, Arsenal had conceded 15 goals in six visits to the Etihad and had not recorded a clean sheet in any of their last five clashes. But on January 18 their 2-0 win appeared almost effortless, sitting deep, absorbing pressure, countering with venom and pace, and restricting the hosts to just four shots on target.
It was a performance rooted in Chelsea's own masterclass at the Etihad almost a year ago, as Nemanja Matic announced his coming as the Premier League's foremost destroyer with a monstrous display. For Arsenal, all it took was Francis Coquelin, on loan at Charlton not so long ago, who sat in front of the defence, shadowing David Silva and denying him the space he thrives in.
With Toure absent, Silva is the player City look to most to inject fluidity and coherence to their play, but he was cut adrift against the Gunners.
Silva's pass success in the opposition's half that day was just 70.2 per cent, the lowest of any outfield player (and his own worst pass accuracy since May) and 16% down on the figure he posted months earlier at the Emirates. In Arsenal's backyard he created six chances, on his own home turf just one.
MIDFIELD CONGESTION | City's play was funnelled down the flanks against Arsenal, with barely a fifth of their attacks coming through the middle during a first half in which they did not have a single shot on target
The concern for Manuel Pellegrini is that his side are powerless to resist such an approach again. Likely deprived of the services of Diego Costa and Cesc Fabregas, Jose Mourinho will be pushed back towards his most pragmatic foibles – the siege mentality is already being cultivated afresh – and the prospect of a holding axis of Matic and John Obi Mikel will prompt little confidence that Silva can break free of his captors.
Normally the emphasis would then shift to City's other game-changing midfielders to affect the match, with the opposition's gaze firmly focused upon the former Valencia magician, but Toure's absence starves City of such an antidote, while Samir Nasri, who dragged the side past Roma in the Italian capital while Toure was suspended in the Champions League, is similarly unavailable.
Instead, City will likely have James Milner and Jesus Navas on the flanks. Milner is noted most for his defensive contributions but loses the player with whom he has the greatest telepathy should Silva be man-marked and cajoled out of the game, while Navas has offered little more than a turn of pace and a sketchy end product. At the heart of the midfield are Fernando and Fernandinho, who contribute most to the stilted connection between attack and defence.
BETWEEN TWO FERNS | Pellegrini is expected to stick with his two Brazilians, while Silva will play just behind lone striker Aguero
Neither Brazilian is particularly adept going forward, save for the former Shakhtar Donestk's man's sniping off-the-ball runs, while Fernando has struggled to adapt to the pace of the Premier League. Neither threatened to open up Arsenal with incisive passing, neither could take advantage of the Gunners' preoccupation with Silva, but both were continuously exposed on the break.
Mourinho's team, lightning-fast in transition and and perhaps cornered into a more defensive, reactive mindset due to missing personnel, are poised to expose that gaping hole in midfield should 'The Two Ferns' once again be tasked with haplessly dictating proceedings, caught between their discomfort in probing the opponent's defence and their inadequacies in shutting down counterattacks.
Yet, the very solution to City's ails could be the same tactic to which they are so vulnerable.
Though ponderous and easily stifled when they dominate proceedings sans Toure – they had 64.7% possession against Arsenal, though did little with it – City are capable of blitzing sides on the break through their own pace merchants, Navas and Aguero, while their Brazilian holding duo are more comfortable focusing solely on protection, not penetration too.
The Capital One Cup semi-final has shown that Chelsea are susceptible to such speedy counterattacks, and even Kurt Zouma's inclusion did not stop Liverpool from tearing towards goal and forcing Thibaut Courtois into heroics.
Curiously, then, Saturday's clash could be decided by the team happiest to cede possession, though there is little to suggest that Pellegrini has the state of mind to diverge from his philosophy in order to play a cuter, more pragmatic style. That is no concern for the Chelsea boss, though, and perhaps his Chilean counterpart needs to embrace a little of the Mourinho inside him in order to beat the Mourinho in front of him.
Posted by Unknown on Friday, January 30, 2015 - Rating: 4.5
Description : THE DOSSIER: The champions have not won in the league without the midfielder this term and must involve David Silva more against Chelsea tha...
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